Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 12 Nov, 05:42 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Nov, 11:24 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Nov, 08:23 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Nov, 14:48 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Nov, 13:43 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Nov, 13:22 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Nov, 12:26 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Nov, 09:19 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Nov, 08:52 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Nov, 07:57 UTC | 3% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait and establish control over any part of its territory by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The entry must be part of a military operation that maintains presence for more than 48 hours, and credible reporting must confirm this control.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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