Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 83% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$11k
Total volume$69k
Liquidity$0
Resolved16 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 10 Nov, 16:11 UTC | 100% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Google makes a model confirmed as "Carbon" publicly available to the general public by November 15, 2026 (ET). The model must be accessible via open beta or public signup, not through closed beta or private access. Readers often mistake updates to Gemini 4 Argon or new models like Gemini 4.1 for qualifying releases unless Google explicitly confirms they are the same as "Carbon".
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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