Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
Implied probability 16%−1
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$191k
Resolves1 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 16% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI announces bankruptcy through official channels or credible reporting by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake the resignation of a safety leader for an official bankruptcy filing.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 16%
- No 85%
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