Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$195k
Total volume$5.7M
Liquidity$265k
Resolves27 Oct 2026
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or as announced by France Football. For 'Yes,' Lionel Messi must be declared the winner; for 'No,' he must not win. Readers often mistake the deadline, which is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or assume other sources of information are valid.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%