Will the Republicans win the Presidency, Senate, and House in 2028?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 12 Nov, 08:30 UTC | 17% |
| 12 Nov, 07:43 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 14% |
| 11 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 14% |
| 11 Nov, 07:15 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 17:36 UTC | 14% |
| 9 Nov, 17:36 UTC | 12% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires Republicans to win the presidency, control the Senate, and control the House in the 2028 election. The No outcome applies if they fail to secure all three of these results. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a permitting bill as relevant to the resolution, but only the actual election results for the presidency and congressional chambers determine the market.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 84%
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