Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?
Why it moved: +31 points at 08:23 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: US moves aircraft from second UK base over ‘threat from Iran’ — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 77% |
| 10 Nov, 21:36 UTC | 77% |
| 10 Nov, 21:08 UTC | 76% |
| 10 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 75% |
| 10 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 78% |
| 10 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 19:27 UTC | 85% |
| 10 Nov, 18:52 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 18:24 UTC | 82% |
| 10 Nov, 17:36 UTC | 86% |
| 10 Nov, 17:29 UTC | 86% |
| 10 Nov, 16:39 UTC | 85% |
| 10 Nov, 16:25 UTC | 87% |
| 10 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 66% |
| 10 Nov, 15:22 UTC | 46% |
| 10 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 45% |
| 10 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 41% |
| 10 Nov, 13:57 UTC | 55% |
| 10 Nov, 13:28 UTC | 51% |
| 10 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Nov, 12:26 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Nov, 11:55 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Nov, 10:41 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Nov, 10:26 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Nov, 09:19 UTC | 36% |
| 10 Nov, 08:58 UTC | 39% |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Nov, 08:23 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air or surface-to-surface strike directly at Oman's land or internal waters before November 30, 2026. The action must be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory; attacks by proxy forces do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 77%
- No 24%
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