Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia
The market favoured Australia at 56% a day out, but South Africa won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$174k
Total volume$179k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 21% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 07:54 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Sept, 07:19 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Sept, 03:00 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 00:48 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Sept, 00:23 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 47% |
| 22 Sept, 21:22 UTC | 44% |
What counts
The market resolves to South Africa if they win the scheduled one-day international, and to Australia if they win. The match must conclude with a declared winner; ties resolve based on specific tiebreak rules or default to an even split. Readers often mistake the resolution source, but official governing body statistics are the primary authority, not news reports.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- South Africa 100%
- Australia 0%
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