Spread: Rockets (-4.5)
The market favoured Rockets at 66% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$338k
Total volume$343k
Liquidity$130k
Resolved10 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 10 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 100% |
| 10 Nov, 01:26 UTC | 52% |
| 10 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Nov, 23:39 UTC | 51% |
| 9 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 49% |
| 9 Nov, 21:21 UTC | 49% |
| 9 Nov, 19:30 UTC | 49% |
| 9 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 50% |
| 9 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 14:29 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Nov, 10:23 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Nov, 08:49 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Nov, 07:50 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 02:06 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Nov, 00:17 UTC | 66% |
What counts
The Rockets outcome resolves if Houston wins by five points or more. The Nuggets outcome resolves if Denver wins, ties, or if the game is canceled or abandoned without an official result after November 11, 2026. Readers often mistake the original Monday start time for the deadline, but the market uses the Wednesday cutoff for no-result provisions.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Rockets 100%
- Nuggets 0%
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