Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +4 points at 05:47 UTC, after News Feed: Romania to form a government after six months of crisis — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 16:34 UTC | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 100% |
| 19 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 96% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Social Democratic Party joins the next governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. The No outcome applies if the party stays out, supports the government without holding a post, or if no government forms by December 31, 2027. Readers often mistake external support agreements for official inclusion; only parties with a Cabinet minister count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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