Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Implied probability 74%−6
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$24k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 74% |
| 18 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 74% |
| 18 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 74% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 74% |
| 18 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 73% |
| 18 Oct, 11:33 UTC | 73% |
| 18 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 74% |
| 18 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 69% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 69% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 70% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 75% |
| 17 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 80% |
| 17 Oct, 06:34 UTC | 80% |
| 17 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 79% |
| 16 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 80% |
| 16 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 81% |
| 16 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 79% |
| 16 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 79% |
| 16 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 78% |
| 16 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 81% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 80% |
| 16 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 82% |
| 16 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 83% |
| 16 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 81% |
| 16 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 79% |
| 16 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 80% |
| 16 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 79% |
| 16 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 80% |
| 16 Oct, 01:56 UTC | 78% |
| 16 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 75% |
| 15 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 75% |
| 15 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 77% |
| 15 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 75% |
| 15 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 74% |
| 15 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 74% |
| 15 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 69% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 68% |
| 15 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 69% |
| 15 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 69% |
| 15 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 68% |
| 15 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 70% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 73% |
| 15 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 71% |
| 15 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 69% |
| 15 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 67% |
| 15 Oct, 14:57 UTC | 68% |
| 13 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 87% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 89% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Apple must hold the second-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the moment the stock market closes on October 31, 2026. The final ranking depends on a consensus of credible financial reporting regarding that specific date's closing values.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 74%
- No 26%
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