Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Israel?
Why it moved: +23 points at 11:29 UTC, after The Guardian US: There is a showdown looming in the Democratic party over support for Israel | Moustafa Bayoumi — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 65% |
| 7 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 01:21 UTC | 65% |
| 7 Nov, 00:30 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 63% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 62% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 65% |
| 6 Nov, 22:21 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 20:53 UTC | 56% |
| 6 Nov, 20:09 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 19:11 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 18:05 UTC | 57% |
| 6 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 57% |
| 6 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 57% |
| 6 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 16:28 UTC | 57% |
| 6 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 11:45 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the exact party composition of the first ruling coalition approved by the 26th Knesset after the October 27, 2026 election. A party counts only if it holds at least one ministerial post, including the Prime Minister; mere parliamentary support does not qualify.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 64%
- No 36%
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