Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?
Why it moved: −10 points at 16:17 UTC, after The Hill: World leaders scoff at Trump mulling Orbán as UN secretary general — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 26 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 36% |
| 25 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 46% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
This market resolves to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement authorities before June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include being taken into physical custody, voluntarily surrendering to an arrest warrant, or being placed under house arrest. Readers often mistake the issuance of an arrest warrant for an actual arrest, but a warrant alone does not count unless it is executed.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 36%
- No 65%
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