Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is named a recipient of the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize in an official announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. It resolves to No if he does not win or if no such announcement occurs by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the deadline for the prize award date rather than the final cutoff for any official announcement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%
Trade this market on Polymarket →