Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2027?
Why it moved: +9 points at 13:50 UTC, after kyivindependent.com: General Staff: Russia has lost 1,616,330 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 43% |
| 12 Nov, 15:47 UTC | 43% |
| 12 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 42% |
| 12 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 42% |
| 12 Nov, 13:50 UTC | 48% |
| 12 Nov, 13:16 UTC | 39% |
| 12 Nov, 10:34 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 02:20 UTC | 39% |
| 11 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 39% |
| 11 Nov, 18:38 UTC | 39% |
| 11 Nov, 17:43 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Nov, 04:21 UTC | 39% |
| 11 Nov, 01:26 UTC | 38% |
| 10 Nov, 10:41 UTC | 38% |
| 10 Nov, 07:37 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 34% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine signs a written agreement ending hostilities or establishing a peace process with Russia by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia does not need to sign or ratify the document. Readers often mistake temporary humanitarian pauses or prisoner exchanges for qualifying peace deals, but these do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 43%
- No 57%
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Stories on this market
- Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Largest Oil Refinery as Both Sides Trade Long-Range Attacks world
- US Envoys Set for Moscow Talks as Ukraine Reports Starlink Restrictions world
- US Envoys Meet Putin After Abu Dhabi Talks Yield Prisoner Swap Deal world
- Leaked Russian data suggests 400,000 killed in Ukraine war world