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Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Implied probability 100%
24-hour volume$40k
Total volume$1.0M
Liquidity$27k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
How the odds moved · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0%50%100%100%23 Sept, 15:03 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
30 Sept, 14:23 UTC100%
30 Sept, 13:57 UTC100%
30 Sept, 12:45 UTC99%
30 Sept, 12:24 UTC99%
30 Sept, 11:54 UTC99%
30 Sept, 11:03 UTC100%
30 Sept, 10:07 UTC100%
30 Sept, 09:44 UTC100%
30 Sept, 06:48 UTC100%
30 Sept, 02:21 UTC100%
30 Sept, 01:44 UTC100%
29 Sept, 18:13 UTC100%
29 Sept, 17:16 UTC100%
29 Sept, 16:54 UTC100%
29 Sept, 11:56 UTC100%
29 Sept, 09:44 UTC100%
29 Sept, 07:48 UTC100%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC100%
27 Sept, 22:24 UTC100%
27 Sept, 12:47 UTC100%
27 Sept, 10:30 UTC100%
27 Sept, 06:34 UTC100%
27 Sept, 04:31 UTC100%
27 Sept, 02:39 UTC100%
26 Sept, 19:56 UTC100%
26 Sept, 18:26 UTC100%
26 Sept, 17:05 UTC100%
26 Sept, 16:56 UTC100%
26 Sept, 15:31 UTC100%
26 Sept, 15:23 UTC100%
26 Sept, 13:50 UTC99%
26 Sept, 13:06 UTC99%
26 Sept, 11:29 UTC99%
26 Sept, 09:49 UTC100%
26 Sept, 09:24 UTC100%
26 Sept, 05:00 UTC100%
26 Sept, 03:31 UTC100%
26 Sept, 03:08 UTC100%
26 Sept, 00:08 UTC99%
25 Sept, 16:37 UTC99%
25 Sept, 15:57 UTC99%
25 Sept, 14:16 UTC99%
25 Sept, 09:57 UTC99%
25 Sept, 06:10 UTC99%
25 Sept, 05:49 UTC99%
25 Sept, 03:44 UTC99%
25 Sept, 03:17 UTC99%
25 Sept, 02:46 UTC99%
24 Sept, 18:17 UTC99%
24 Sept, 15:18 UTC99%
24 Sept, 14:36 UTC99%
24 Sept, 14:28 UTC99%
24 Sept, 12:42 UTC99%
24 Sept, 11:41 UTC99%
24 Sept, 09:06 UTC99%
24 Sept, 08:29 UTC99%
24 Sept, 07:47 UTC99%
24 Sept, 07:25 UTC99%
24 Sept, 06:50 UTC99%
24 Sept, 06:09 UTC99%
24 Sept, 05:47 UTC99%
24 Sept, 05:28 UTC99%
24 Sept, 04:01 UTC99%
24 Sept, 01:51 UTC99%
24 Sept, 00:41 UTC99%
24 Sept, 00:23 UTC99%
23 Sept, 23:27 UTC99%
23 Sept, 22:27 UTC99%
23 Sept, 21:36 UTC99%
23 Sept, 21:29 UTC98%
23 Sept, 20:27 UTC98%
23 Sept, 19:39 UTC99%
23 Sept, 19:01 UTC98%
23 Sept, 18:54 UTC98%
23 Sept, 17:39 UTC99%
23 Sept, 17:25 UTC99%
23 Sept, 15:31 UTC99%
23 Sept, 15:03 UTC98%

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What counts

Anthropic wins if its model holds the top spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The ranking relies on the specific 'Text Arena | Overall' tab with style control turned off. Readers often mistake the check time for midnight or ignore the required setting adjustments.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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