Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 22:06 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 23:47 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The outcome is Yes if DeepSeek owns the model with the highest rank at that time, and No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Huawei chips as relevant to the resolution, but only the specific leaderboard data counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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