Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 10 Nov, 04:08 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 19:00 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 17:30 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 10:30 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 08:30 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 08:16 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 05:43 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 00:17 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 20:50 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 20:10 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 19:16 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 10:35 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 09:33 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 09:19 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 07:29 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 05:32 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 18:25 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 17:23 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 16:43 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 15:39 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 14:20 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 11:45 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 11:03 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 10:32 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 08:43 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 08:09 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 06:19 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 05:30 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 20:46 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 20:09 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 13:20 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 23:31 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 23:10 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 20:41 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 11:35 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 09:40 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the market to resolve to Yes, President Trump must formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act by December 31, 2026, explicitly citing election interference as the basis. The declaration must appear in the Federal Register or official White House publications and contain specific legal language establishing the emergency.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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