Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?
The market favoured Yes at 53% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +50 points at 09:20 UTC, after The New York Times: How the Epstein Files Forced the Nobel Peace Prize to Reckon With Impartiality — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 100% |
| 8 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 51% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Norwegian Nobel Committee names at least one specific person as a laureate in its official announcement. The No outcome applies if the prize goes to an organization, remains unawarded, or is not announced by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the final result instead of waiting for the committee's official confirmation.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →