Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 59% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 59% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 60% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 07:36 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 55% |
| 22 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 54% |
| 22 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 55% |
| 22 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 59% |
| 21 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 55% |
| 21 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 55% |
| 21 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 55% |
| 21 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 55% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 55% |
| 21 Oct, 19:54 UTC | 55% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 53% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 54% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 53% |
| 21 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 53% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 53% |
| 21 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 08:10 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 56% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 56% |
| 21 Oct, 01:10 UTC | 57% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 57% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 58% |
| 20 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 57% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 58% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 57% |
| 20 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 56% |
| 20 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 56% |
| 20 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 55% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 54% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 54% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 53% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 54% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 55% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 16:38 UTC | 58% |
| 18 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 58% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 54% |
| 17 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 13:02 UTC | 54% |
| 17 Oct, 12:48 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 07:34 UTC | 54% |
| 17 Oct, 06:54 UTC | 54% |
| 17 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 02:17 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 50% |
| 16 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 53% |
| 16 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 52% |
| 16 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 53% |
| 16 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 53% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a merger or acquisition that results in one company controlling the other by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to "No" if no such controlling interest is announced by that deadline. Readers often mistake partial sales for qualifying events; only transactions granting control over strategic decisions count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 59%
- No 41%
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