Will Gemini Carbon debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 11:12 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 96% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Google model named Carbon appears at rank 1 on the Text Arena leaderboard when checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after it first shows up. The model must be explicitly identified as Carbon or its confirmed successor by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the debut date for the resolution deadline, but the actual check occurs the following day.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%
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