Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Implied probability 96%+1
24-hour volume$443
Total volume$244k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves31 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Oct, 09:00 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 92% |
| 11 Oct, 08:25 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 95% |
| 11 Oct, 02:24 UTC | 95% |
| 10 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 94% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on China’s full-year 2026 GDP growth rate from the National Bureau of Statistics’ preliminary accounting release in January 2027. The outcome is Yes if the reported year-over-year percentage falls between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 5%
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