United States vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score
The market favoured Yes at 56% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$41k
Total volume$41k
Liquidity$38k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 17:00 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 57% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if both teams score at least one goal during the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The No outcome applies if either team fails to score any goals in that period. Readers often mistake the resolution source, but the official final result from FIFA takes precedence over other data providers.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →