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Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability 26%−2
24-hour volume$612
Total volume$20k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?
0%50%100%26%23 Oct, 13:14 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now26%
26 Oct, 16:02 UTC26%
26 Oct, 15:54 UTC26%
26 Oct, 15:17 UTC24%
26 Oct, 12:39 UTC21%
26 Oct, 12:25 UTC21%
26 Oct, 11:49 UTC21%
26 Oct, 07:13 UTC32%
26 Oct, 06:58 UTC33%
26 Oct, 06:27 UTC33%
26 Oct, 04:43 UTC24%
26 Oct, 04:29 UTC24%
26 Oct, 03:57 UTC24%
26 Oct, 03:27 UTC25%
26 Oct, 02:48 UTC28%
26 Oct, 02:27 UTC35%
26 Oct, 01:58 UTC36%
26 Oct, 01:27 UTC36%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC36%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC41%
25 Oct, 22:54 UTC41%
25 Oct, 22:20 UTC39%
25 Oct, 21:50 UTC20%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC20%
25 Oct, 20:56 UTC19%
25 Oct, 20:26 UTC19%
25 Oct, 19:25 UTC18%
25 Oct, 18:57 UTC18%
25 Oct, 18:25 UTC18%
25 Oct, 17:42 UTC17%
25 Oct, 17:03 UTC20%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC25%
25 Oct, 16:21 UTC24%
25 Oct, 15:39 UTC24%
25 Oct, 15:25 UTC25%
25 Oct, 13:49 UTC25%
25 Oct, 12:49 UTC24%
25 Oct, 12:10 UTC24%
25 Oct, 11:42 UTC26%
25 Oct, 11:14 UTC27%
25 Oct, 10:49 UTC27%
25 Oct, 10:28 UTC26%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC26%
25 Oct, 09:28 UTC27%
25 Oct, 08:53 UTC30%
25 Oct, 08:07 UTC34%
25 Oct, 07:53 UTC32%
25 Oct, 06:48 UTC32%
25 Oct, 06:28 UTC25%
25 Oct, 05:51 UTC9%
25 Oct, 05:10 UTC17%
25 Oct, 04:36 UTC22%
25 Oct, 02:00 UTC22%
25 Oct, 00:58 UTC22%
25 Oct, 00:14 UTC22%
24 Oct, 22:05 UTC22%
24 Oct, 21:19 UTC22%
24 Oct, 20:51 UTC21%
24 Oct, 20:23 UTC17%
24 Oct, 19:51 UTC25%
24 Oct, 19:23 UTC24%
24 Oct, 18:50 UTC27%
24 Oct, 18:22 UTC29%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC32%
24 Oct, 17:08 UTC34%
24 Oct, 16:54 UTC34%
24 Oct, 16:22 UTC31%
24 Oct, 15:55 UTC31%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC29%
24 Oct, 14:40 UTC36%
24 Oct, 14:12 UTC36%
24 Oct, 13:52 UTC32%
24 Oct, 13:21 UTC27%
23 Oct, 13:14 UTC37%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at Jordan before October 31, 2026. The action must be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory; proxy attacks do not count. Readers often mistake threats or proxy strikes for qualifying events.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 26%
  • No 74%

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