OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Implied probability 16%−1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$312k
Liquidity$28k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Oct, 01:50 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces the creation of artificial general intelligence by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the completion date of the technology.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 16%
- No 85%
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