Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$41k
Liquidity$0
Resolved19 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 11 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 100% |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 100% |
| 11 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 99% |
| 11 Nov, 01:12 UTC | 99% |
| 10 Nov, 01:12 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Pat Murphy is named the National League Manager of the Year for the 2026 MLB season. The No outcome applies if he does not win, or if another manager receives the award. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the regular season, but the market resolves only after the official winner is declared by Major League Baseball.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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