Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Why it moved: +7 points at 15:28 UTC, after kyivindependent.com: Russia's military spending masks a longer-term strategy for a prolonged war — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Russia must start a military offensive to control part of a UN member state's territory (excluding Ukraine) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to "Yes." The deadline is strictly based on Eastern Time, not local Russian time. Readers often mistake the end date as 2027, but the resolution rules specify 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 83%
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