Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?
Implied probability 92%+1
24-hour volume$131
Total volume$60k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 08:16 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 91% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 08:53 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 03:37 UTC | 92% |
| 23 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 23:14 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 22:34 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 20:42 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 19:35 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 13:23 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Sept, 03:21 UTC | 91% |
| 22 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Sept, 02:40 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Sept, 01:35 UTC | 92% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Sept, 09:21 UTC | 91% |
| 20 Sept, 08:15 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Sept, 07:46 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Sept, 07:11 UTC | 93% |
| 20 Sept, 06:52 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Sept, 05:21 UTC | 92% |
| 20 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 93% |
| 20 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 93% |
| 20 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 93% |
| 20 Sept, 02:34 UTC | 93% |
| 19 Sept, 15:30 UTC | 95% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 94% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves by checking the Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The outcome is Yes if Anthropic owns the model ranked first in the 'Models' filter; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake the launch date of a new model for the resolution time, but only the leaderboard ranking at that specific deadline counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 92%
- No 9%
Trade this market on Polymarket →