Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 8% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 8% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 8% |
| 5 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 8% |
| 5 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Saudi Arabian airspace is officially closed by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET due to a general suspension of commercial flights. A qualifying closure requires an official Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) or order from the responsible aviation authority that prohibits commercial traffic, excluding weather, technical failures, or pre-planned closures.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
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