Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine signs a written agreement ending hostilities or establishing a path to peace by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The document must include an official signature from an authorized Ukrainian representative and apply to the broader conflict rather than a temporary or local arrangement. Readers often mistake unrelated sanctions bills or unsigned proposals for valid resolutions.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 90%
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