Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Implied probability 44%+1
24-hour volume$69
Total volume$69k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 44% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 43% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day finishes second in domestic opening weekend gross among all 2026 releases, based on final three-day figures from The Numbers website. It resolves to No if any other movie takes that second spot or if the ranking changes after initial estimates are finalized.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 44%
- No 56%
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