Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 2%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$97k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 06:17 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 05:12 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 01:17 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 00:42 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 19:16 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This recognition must be a public announcement of an official agreement or unilateral pledge, regardless of whether it is part of a broader peace deal or when it takes effect.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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