Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 56% |
| 17 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 56% |
| 17 Oct, 18:03 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 57% |
| 17 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 58% |
| 17 Oct, 12:41 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 61% |
| 17 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 07:34 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 61% |
| 17 Oct, 01:37 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 61% |
| 17 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 61% |
| 16 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 61% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 60% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 64% |
| 16 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 63% |
| 16 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 61% |
| 16 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 61% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 63% |
| 16 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 65% |
| 15 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 62% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 65% |
| 15 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 62% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 60% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 51% |
| 15 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 50% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 51% |
| 14 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 56% |
| 14 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 55% |
| 13 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 55% |
| 12 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 56% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The "Yes" outcome occurs if Maduro receives no jail or prison time in his first sentencing for this specific indictment by December 31, 2027. The "No" outcome happens if he is sentenced to any period of incarceration for these charges before that deadline. Readers often mistake the resolution source, but only official U.S. court records or credible consensus reporting count, not general news speculation.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 55%
- No 45%
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