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Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?

Resolved: Yes 3h ago

The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$23k
Total volume$47k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?
0%50%100%100%8 Nov, 23:45 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
12 Nov, 12:41 UTC100%
12 Nov, 10:41 UTC100%
12 Nov, 10:27 UTC100%
12 Nov, 09:59 UTC98%
12 Nov, 09:23 UTC95%
12 Nov, 08:56 UTC96%
12 Nov, 08:23 UTC96%
12 Nov, 07:56 UTC96%
12 Nov, 07:29 UTC96%
12 Nov, 06:55 UTC98%
12 Nov, 05:15 UTC98%
11 Nov, 23:18 UTC98%
11 Nov, 22:52 UTC98%
11 Nov, 21:38 UTC99%
11 Nov, 20:42 UTC99%
11 Nov, 20:15 UTC98%
11 Nov, 19:54 UTC97%
11 Nov, 19:06 UTC96%
11 Nov, 18:59 UTC95%
11 Nov, 18:11 UTC97%
11 Nov, 17:57 UTC94%
11 Nov, 17:29 UTC95%
11 Nov, 15:21 UTC96%
11 Nov, 14:59 UTC96%
11 Nov, 13:31 UTC98%
11 Nov, 13:10 UTC98%
11 Nov, 11:58 UTC97%
11 Nov, 11:24 UTC94%
11 Nov, 10:53 UTC92%
11 Nov, 10:25 UTC92%
11 Nov, 09:58 UTC93%
11 Nov, 09:29 UTC93%
11 Nov, 08:56 UTC90%
11 Nov, 08:10 UTC87%
11 Nov, 07:57 UTC88%
11 Nov, 07:23 UTC88%
11 Nov, 06:56 UTC88%
11 Nov, 06:23 UTC88%
11 Nov, 05:35 UTC88%
11 Nov, 05:29 UTC89%
11 Nov, 04:55 UTC85%
11 Nov, 04:28 UTC87%
11 Nov, 03:36 UTC90%
11 Nov, 03:29 UTC90%
11 Nov, 02:54 UTC90%
11 Nov, 02:27 UTC87%
11 Nov, 01:46 UTC91%
11 Nov, 01:26 UTC90%
11 Nov, 00:44 UTC87%
11 Nov, 00:10 UTC85%
10 Nov, 23:56 UTC85%
10 Nov, 23:22 UTC85%
10 Nov, 22:55 UTC86%
10 Nov, 22:04 UTC87%
10 Nov, 21:57 UTC90%
10 Nov, 21:02 UTC92%
10 Nov, 20:54 UTC93%
10 Nov, 20:27 UTC95%
10 Nov, 19:40 UTC95%
10 Nov, 19:27 UTC95%
10 Nov, 18:59 UTC95%
10 Nov, 18:24 UTC95%
10 Nov, 17:50 UTC98%
10 Nov, 17:22 UTC98%
10 Nov, 16:54 UTC98%
10 Nov, 16:11 UTC97%
10 Nov, 15:57 UTC97%
10 Nov, 14:48 UTC98%
10 Nov, 14:11 UTC98%
10 Nov, 13:36 UTC98%
10 Nov, 10:59 UTC98%
10 Nov, 09:59 UTC98%
10 Nov, 09:12 UTC98%
10 Nov, 08:58 UTC98%
10 Nov, 05:36 UTC99%
10 Nov, 05:22 UTC99%
10 Nov, 04:08 UTC99%
10 Nov, 03:01 UTC99%
10 Nov, 01:39 UTC99%
10 Nov, 01:06 UTC97%
10 Nov, 00:53 UTC96%
10 Nov, 00:26 UTC93%
9 Nov, 23:46 UTC93%
8 Nov, 23:45 UTC79%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Michael Carrick stops being Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This includes being sacked, resigning, or leaving for another role, but excludes temporary absences like illness or suspension while he remains under contract. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective departure date; the resolution uses whichever is earlier.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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