Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?
The market favoured Yes at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 12:46 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 98% |
| 19 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 96% |
What counts
The Yes outcome requires that the Social Democratic Party (PSD) joins the first government formed after this market opens and holds at least one cabinet minister position. The No outcome applies if PSD does not hold a cabinet post in that specific coalition, even if it supports the government from outside.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →