Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Implied probability 3%+2
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$48k
Resolves9 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 11:14 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 23:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 01:37 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 17:05 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 11:01 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 07:36 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 12:46 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 09:39 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
Yes resolves if the Fed makes a different decision (cut, hike, or pause) in all three upcoming FOMC meetings compared to their previous decisions. No resolves if the Fed makes the same decision in all three upcoming FOMC meetings as they did previously.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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