Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Implied probability 15%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$29k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 25 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 14% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if both Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026. This agreement must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting as a general pause in the conflict.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%
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