Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 08:32 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 13:07 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if both Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026. This agreement must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting as a general pause in the conflict.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 92%
Trade this market on Polymarket → Sponsored link: it carries our referral code. How the site is funded.