Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?
Why it moved: +41 points at 22:54 UTC, after Deutsche Welle: Brazil elections: Vote counting resumes after extension — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 84% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 81% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 11:38 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 16% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the official voter turnout in Brazil's second-round presidential election falls between 80% and 82%, inclusive. The No outcome applies if the turnout is outside this range or if results are not reported by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 84%
- No 17%
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