Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 12 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Nov, 16:10 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 38% |
| 6 Nov, 10:56 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 09:37 UTC | 39% |
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What counts
For the Yes outcome, Russia and Ukraine must mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027. This agreement must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by credible reporting as a general pause in hostilities. Readers often mistake informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or agreements limited to specific locations for a valid ceasefire.
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Outcomes
- Yes 36%
- No 65%
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