Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$478k
Liquidity$8k
Resolved1 Jul 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 0% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 08:31 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 06:56 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 06:13 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 04:42 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 04:02 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower successfully catch and support the Starship upper stage during its landing attempt for the 14th test flight. It resolves to No if the stage splashes down in the ocean, falls to the ground, or causes catastrophic damage.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →