Will Trudy peak at Category 3?
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$0
Resolved27 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 100% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 11:33 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 10:45 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 10:01 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 98% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 98% |
| 17 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 97% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the National Hurricane Center assigns Trudy a peak intensity of Category 3 or higher in any public advisory. The No outcome applies if the storm never reaches that strength according to those specific reports. Readers often mistake the final best track data for the official source, but only real-time advisories count toward resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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