Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 48%−7
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$34k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 48% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 18:23 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 28% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Jared Kushner is physically present and actively participates in a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting between US and Iran officials before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event must be an in-person negotiation authorized by both governments, not just technical talks or casual encounters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 48%
- No 52%
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