Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$6.1M
Liquidity$394k
Resolves7 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 17 Sept, 16:05 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
For the outcome to be "Yes," Thomas Massie must win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources. For the outcome to be "No," he does not meet this condition. Readers often mistakenly believe that any replacement nominee before election day would change the resolution, but the market only considers who wins and accepts the nomination.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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