Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$35k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 10:11 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 06:13 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 03:04 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 00:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 19:49 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 16:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 08:14 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 07:09 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 19:48 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 14:29 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 10:58 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 09:46 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 08:37 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 02:40 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Sept, 22:05 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Sept, 18:32 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Sept, 10:21 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Sept, 09:53 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Sept, 08:51 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Sept, 08:07 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Sept, 07:53 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Sept, 06:45 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Sept, 06:45 UTC | 11% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome triggers if Friedrich Merz permanently leaves his current office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary resignations, caretaker roles, or election results that do not immediately end his tenure do not count toward resolution. Readers often mistake scheduled departures or interim positions for permanent removal from office.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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