Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 12 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Nov, 23:52 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Nov, 17:29 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Nov, 16:46 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Nov, 16:17 UTC | 33% |
| 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 33% |
| 11 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Nov, 14:51 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Nov, 14:51 UTC | 30% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves based on Google's position as the second-ranked AI lab on the arena.ai leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. You must check the specific "Labs" filter on that site to see the correct ranking, ignoring any models marked "AutoEval." Readers often mistake the date for the end of the month or overlook the requirement to use only the filtered Lab view.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 68%
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