China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Implied probability 23%
24-hour volume$54
Total volume$552k
Liquidity$36k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 23% |
| 23 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 24% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 23% |
| 21 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 23% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 23% |
| 18 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 23% |
| 18 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Chinese and Philippine military forces engage in direct combat, such as gunfire or intentional ship ramming causing significant damage, before December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if no such encounter occurs by that deadline or if the incident involves only non-military entities like the Philippine Coast Guard.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 23%
- No 78%
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