Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Why it moved: +5 points at 00:25 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Nvidia Working to Find New CEO, Colom Wins MS Race, More — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 15:54 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 15:20 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 13:50 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 13:16 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 12:27 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 11:41 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 11:25 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 30% |
| 12 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 06:22 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Nov, 05:55 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 05:15 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Nov, 02:53 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Nov, 00:25 UTC | 28% |
| 11 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 17:15 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 16:10 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Nov, 13:59 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 11:45 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 11:16 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Nov, 10:46 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 05:43 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 05:29 UTC | 19% |
| 10 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Nov, 04:28 UTC | 20% |
| 10 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 20% |
| 10 Nov, 02:40 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Nov, 01:26 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 26% |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | 26% |
| 9 Nov, 19:58 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Nov, 18:47 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Nov, 18:26 UTC | 25% |
| 9 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Nov, 17:15 UTC | 20% |
| 9 Nov, 16:54 UTC | 20% |
| 9 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
NVIDIA must hold the third-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026, for the Yes outcome to occur. The No outcome applies if any other company surpasses NVIDIA in market cap by that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single financial data provider.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%
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