Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$52k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 17:40 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 19:04 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 16:42 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 07:02 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 06:43 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Meta owns the model with the highest rank on the specified arena.ai leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if any other company holds that top spot or if the source becomes permanently unavailable. Readers often mistake the resolution time for the end of the day rather than the specific 12:00 PM ET deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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