Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Implied probability 14%+4
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$124k
Liquidity$19k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 10% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 10% |
| 6 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel sends more than 1,000 ground troops into new areas of Gaza before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this specific threshold is not met by that deadline. Readers often mistake limited border raids or special operations for a major offensive, but these do not count toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 87%
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