Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
Why it moved: −4 points at 23:50 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: Midterms: jóvenes ultraconservadores buscan revitalizar el legado del asesinado Charlie Kirk — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 35% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 35% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 38% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 33% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuela's land territory before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if she does not enter by that deadline. Readers often mistakenly count visits to Venezuelan airspace or maritime zones as a positive resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 68%
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