Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron by October 31?
The market favoured No at 58% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 2 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 46% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron engage in any verbal conversation by phone or video call before 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if no such interaction occurs within that window or if credible media cannot confirm the timing of a reported call by 11:59 PM ET three days after the market's deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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